Modeling Admob and Millennial Media revenues and margin

    I read Cogblog's stab at modeling some of the mobile network's revenues, margin,overhead this morning.  Making a few modifications to their assumptions get us closer to reality.

    First, they assume revenues at $.50/CPM and publisher payouts of $.30/CPM for non-premium inventory.  In my experience the clearing rate for inventory is closer to $$1.00-1.25/CPM, as opposed to $.50/CPM.

    They also assume margins are 40% in the business, and that both companies have the same margins.  I suspect margins are slightly lower overall.  I also believe that Admob's margins are greater, because they have a larger number of smaller publishers.  Millennial Media's margins are likely lower as they represent a smaller number of bigger publishers that have more negotiating leverage.

    My numbers assume US traffic, so there could be a lot of play in these numbers based upon how well non-US countries monetize.  Also, these are clearing rates for "non-premium" inventory....I don't have any good guesses on the amount of inventory sold at premium rates (although the premium sell-through rate is likely much higher at Millennial).

Comments

[Brent]

Yeah, where is the model. I need to see how the math actually works out.

[Brian T]

I also think that Admob has a lot of owned and operated iphone inventory which may be completely owned which MM doesn't. Would love to see your modeling if you could post a graph or chart.